Academia Cantolao 2–0 Sport Rosario: Result & Stats

Academia Cantolao

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Rosario

10/4/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Academia Cantolao50%

×Draw25%

Sport Rosario25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchSport Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Academia Cantolao

1.65

Sport Rosario

1.09

Academia Cantolao creates 51% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 22 away

1.16

creates per match

0.82

1.37

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.16

Sport Rosario

0.82

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.37

Sport Rosario

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Sport Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

75%

Academia Cantolao or Sport Rosario

75%

Draw or Sport Rosario

50%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

27%

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

81%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

49%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

23%

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

66%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

30%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.16 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

50%

level

25%

Sport Rosario scores more

25%

Academia Cantolao at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff