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Academia Cantolao vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Marcos
San Marcos
8/12/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Round - 1Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Academia Cantolao46%
×Draw26%
San Marcos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Cantolao
1.48
San Marcos
1.08

Academia Cantolao creates 37% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Academia Cantolao
1.14
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Academia Cantolao
1.34
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw
72%
Academia Cantolao or San Marcos
74%
Draw or San Marcos
54%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
23%
San Marcos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
77%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
43%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
19%
San Marcos 1+ goals
66%
San Marcos 2+ goals
29%
San Marcos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
63%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.14 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more
46%
level
26%
San Marcos scores more
28%

Academia Cantolao at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs San Marcos

Academia Cantolao and San Marcos drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.