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Academia Cantolao vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2026

Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
10/8/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Academia Cantolao38%
×Draw27%
Cesar Vallejo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Cantolao
1.27
Cesar Vallejo
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

Academia Cantolao
1.13
Cesar Vallejo
1.00

allows per match

Academia Cantolao
1.40
Cesar Vallejo
1.41

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw
65%
Academia Cantolao or Cesar Vallejo
73%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
62%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
17%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
72%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
36%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
14%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
70%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
34%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
52%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.13 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more
38%
level
27%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
35%

Academia Cantolao at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Academia Cantolao 0–1 Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat Academia Cantolao 1-0 in Primera División on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.