Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Academia Anzoátegui vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
6/18/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui50%
×Draw29%
Libertador FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
1.28
Libertador FC
0.71

Academia Anzoátegui creates 80% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.23
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
0.68
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
79%
Academia Anzoátegui or Libertador FC
71%
Draw or Libertador FC
50%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
23%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
72%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
37%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
14%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
51%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
16%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
71%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
50%
level
29%
Libertador FC scores more
21%

Academia Anzoátegui at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Academia Anzoátegui 3–0 Libertador FC

Academia Anzoátegui beat Libertador FC 3-0 in Segunda División on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui in Puerto la Cruz.