Academia Anzoátegui 1–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Academia Anzoátegui

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

10/1/2023

Segunda División · Clausura - 14Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui48%

×Draw28%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia AnzoáteguiExpected goals in this matchDinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.83

Academia Anzoátegui

1.31

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

0.83

Academia Anzoátegui creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 84 away

1.23

creates per match

0.99

0.68

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui

1.23

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

0.99

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui

0.68

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw

76%

Academia Anzoátegui or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

72%

Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

52%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals

73%

Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals

38%

Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)

67%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more

48%

level

28%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

24%

Academia Anzoátegui at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff