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Academia Anzoátegui vs Atlético La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
FT
2 – 0
Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
8/7/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Barcelona Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui45%
×Draw29%
Atlético La Cruz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
1.25
Atlético La Cruz
0.88

Academia Anzoátegui creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 50 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.23
Atlético La Cruz
1.08

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
0.68
Atlético La Cruz
1.26

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Atlético La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
74%
Academia Anzoátegui or Atlético La Cruz
71%
Draw or Atlético La Cruz
55%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
20%
Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
71%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
36%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
13%
Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
59%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
22%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
45%
level
29%
Atlético La Cruz scores more
26%

Academia Anzoátegui at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Academia Anzoátegui 2–0 Atlético La Cruz

Academia Anzoátegui beat Atlético La Cruz 2-0 in Segunda División on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Barcelona Sport Center in Barcelona.