AC Oulu 0–1 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Oulu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Turku PS

A. Moundi 43'

5/25/2019

Ykkönen · Round 3Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

AC Oulu38%

×Draw28%

Turku PS34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.12

AC Oulu

1.21

Turku PS

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 53 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

0.86

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.45

Turku PS

1.38

allows per match

AC Oulu

0.86

Turku PS

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Turku PS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

66%

AC Oulu or Turku PS

72%

Draw or Turku PS

62%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

16%

Turku PS wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

70%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

34%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

12%

Turku PS 1+ goals

67%

Turku PS 2+ goals

31%

Turku PS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

53%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.45 + Turku PS defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Turku PS attack 1.38 + AC Oulu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AC Oulu scores more

38%

level

28%

Turku PS scores more

34%

AC Oulu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

K. Heinolainen← O. Schultz

43'

A. Moundi

46'

A. Gullsten← A. Heikkilä

63'

A. Morin← J. Mäkelä

65'

A. Muzaci← M. Ääritalo

69'

S. Duah

73'

F. Orishani

76'

P. Welliing← J. Korhonen

80'

J. Peraaho

87'

J. Karlsson← O. Jakonen

AC

Turku

27

Lepola

25

Hernández

4

Holma

14

▼

8

42

6

2

⚽

Moundi

11

▼

Ääritalo

21

Duah

9

▼

30

5

82

26

31

▼

Korhonen

22

Hertsi

47

▼

8

11

24

18

▼

Mäkelä

Manager: M. Lähderinne

46'▲A. Gullsten←▼A. Heikkilä

63'▲A. Morin←▼J. Mäkelä

76'▲P. Welliing←▼J. Korhonen

AC Oulu substitutes

17Gullsten9Morin19Welliing10Shala14Belov20Kurttila33Tikkanen

Manager: T. Pikkarainen

24'▲K. Heinolainen←▼O. Schultz

65'▲A. Muzaci←▼M. Ääritalo

87'▲J. Karlsson←▼O. Jakonen

Turku PS substitutes

3Heinolainen16Muzaci20Karlsson1Mujunen10Virtanen15Salminen17Espinosa