AC Oulu 1–0 SJK Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Oulu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SJK Akatemia

7/11/2020

Ykkönen · Round 3Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AC Oulu53%

×Draw24%

SJK Akatemia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchSJK Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.04

AC Oulu

1.72

SJK Akatemia

1.04

AC Oulu creates 65% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.49

creates per match

1.23

0.85

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.49

SJK Akatemia

1.23

allows per match

AC Oulu

0.85

SJK Akatemia

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

SJK Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

77%

AC Oulu or SJK Akatemia

76%

Draw or SJK Akatemia

47%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

29%

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

82%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

51%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

25%

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

65%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

28%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

70%

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.49 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.72

SJK Akatemia attack 1.23 + AC Oulu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AC Oulu scores more

53%

level

24%

SJK Akatemia scores more

23%

AC Oulu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff