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AC Oulu vs SJK — Veikkausliiga 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SJK
SJK
5/31/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 9Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AC Oulu38%
×Draw26%
SJK36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.33
SJK
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 121 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.26
SJK
1.21

allows per match

AC Oulu
1.36
SJK
1.40

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

SJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
64%
AC Oulu or SJK
74%
Draw or SJK
62%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
17%
SJK wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
74%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
38%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
15%
SJK 1+ goals
72%
SJK 2+ goals
37%
SJK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
51%
SJK (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

SJK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.26 + SJK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

SJK attack 1.21 + AC Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AC Oulu scores more
38%
level
26%
SJK scores more
36%

AC Oulu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: AC Oulu 2–2 SJK

AC Oulu and SJK drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.