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AC Oulu vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga 2026

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KuPS
KuPS
7/4/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 14Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AC Oulu32%
×Draw23%
KuPS45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.48
KuPS
1.79

KuPS creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.53
KuPS
1.49

allows per match

AC Oulu
2.10
KuPS
1.44

finishing

AC Oulu-0.53scores less
KuPS-0.09on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
55%
AC Oulu or KuPS
77%
Draw or KuPS
68%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
15%
KuPS wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
77%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
43%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
19%
KuPS 1+ goals
83%
KuPS 2+ goals
53%
KuPS 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
42%
KuPS (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.53 + KuPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

KuPS attack 1.49 + AC Oulu defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Oulu scores more
32%
level
23%
KuPS scores more
45%

KuPS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Oulu vs KuPS

AC Oulu and KuPS drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on July 4, 2025.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.