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AC Oulu vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
9/29/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 13Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AC Oulu48%
×Draw26%
KPV Kokkola26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.48
KPV Kokkola
1.00

AC Oulu creates 48% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.49
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.85
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
74%
AC Oulu or KPV Kokkola
74%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
52%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
24%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
77%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
43%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
19%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
63%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
26%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
65%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.49 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + AC Oulu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Oulu scores more
48%
level
26%
KPV Kokkola scores more
26%

AC Oulu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: AC Oulu 2–3 KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat AC Oulu 3-2 in Ykkönen on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Raatin stadion (Oulu).