AC Oulu 5–1 KäPa: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

AC Oulu

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

KäPa

J. Körkkö 57'

J. Rennicks 36'

N. Jokelainen 30', 13'

J. Huhtala 5'

M. Turunen 66'

6/15/2024

Suomen Cup · 5th RoundRaatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AC Oulu35%

×Draw22%

KäPa43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.95

AC Oulu

1.75

KäPa

1.95

KäPa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

3.20

0.69

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AC Oulu

2.00

KäPa

3.20

allows per match

AC Oulu

0.69

KäPa

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

KäPa →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

57%

AC Oulu or KäPa

78%

Draw or KäPa

65%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

18%

KäPa wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

83%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

52%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

25%

KäPa 1+ goals

86%

KäPa 2+ goals

58%

KäPa 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

45%

KäPa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

KäPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 2.00 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

KäPa attack 3.20 + AC Oulu defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

AC Oulu scores more

35%

level

22%

KäPa scores more

43%

KäPa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

36'

43'

45'

46'

46'

M. Kauppila← N. Nurmi

46'

M. Pulkkinen← P. Lindberg

46'

46'

53'

57'

59'

60'

J. Kallinen← J. Dunwoody

60'

O. Salmensuu← J. Rennicks

61'

62'

62'

66'

67'

A. Auranen← P. Forsman

70'

D. Barrow← N. Jokelainen

79'

J. Lehtiranta← J. Körkkö

KäPa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Jokelaine

▼

Dunwoody

Metaxas

⚽

▼

Rennicks

⚽

Huhtala

⚽

▼

Körkkö

Manager: M. Isokangas

46'▲L. Abadid←▼S. Hölttä

60'▲J. Kallinen←▼J. Dunwoody

60'▲O. Salmensuu←▼J. Rennicks

70'▲D. Barrow←▼N. Jokelainen

79'▲J. Lehtiranta←▼J. Körkkö

AC Oulu substitutes

AbadidKallinenSalmensuuBarrowLehtirantaCoffeyWard

Manager: S. Okkonen

46'▲M. Kauppila←▼N. Nurmi

46'▲M. Pulkkinen←▼P. Lindberg

46'▲T. Pasi←▼E. Kallio

46'▲Y. Lika←▼J. Huovinen

67'▲A. Auranen←▼P. Forsman

KäPa substitutes

KauppilaPulkkinenPasiLikaAuranenPiispa

AC Oulu 5 – 1 KäPa

AC Oulu beat KäPa 5-1 in Suomen Cup on June 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Huhtala (5'), N. Jokelainen (13', 30'), J. Rennicks (36'), J. Körkkö (57'), M. Turunen (66').

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.

AC Oulu vs KäPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

AC Oulu 5 – 1 KäPa