Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Oulu vs Ilves II — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ilves II
Ilves II
5/25/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundRaatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AC Oulu54%
×Draw20%
Ilves II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
2.30
Ilves II
1.54

AC Oulu creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
2.00
Ilves II
2.40

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.69
Ilves II
2.60

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Ilves II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
74%
AC Oulu or Ilves II
80%
Draw or Ilves II
46%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
33%
Ilves II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
90%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
67%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
40%
Ilves II 1+ goals
79%
Ilves II 2+ goals
45%
Ilves II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
68%
Ilves II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Ilves II away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 2.00 + Ilves II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ilves II attack 2.40 + AC Oulu defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AC Oulu scores more
54%
level
20%
Ilves II scores more
26%

AC Oulu at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: AC Oulu 4–0 Ilves II

AC Oulu beat Ilves II 4-0 in Suomen Cup on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.