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AC Oulu vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Preview
14:00
Ilves
Ilves
8/1/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 18Raatin stadion
Big match
52%
Ilves
model favours
26%22%52%

AC Oulu score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AC Oulu26%
×Draw22%
Ilves52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.40
Ilves
2.04

Ilves creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.53
Ilves
1.98

allows per match

AC Oulu
2.10
Ilves
1.27

finishing

AC Oulu-0.53scores less
Ilves-0.41scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
48%
AC Oulu or Ilves
78%
Draw or Ilves
74%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
11%
Ilves wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
75%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
41%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
17%
Ilves 1+ goals
87%
Ilves 2+ goals
60%
Ilves 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
34%
Ilves (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.53 + Ilves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ilves attack 1.98 + AC Oulu defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AC Oulu scores more
26%
level
22%
Ilves scores more
52%

Ilves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ilves have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 69% of Ilves’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 72% of Ilves’s matches
  • Ilves win just 21% of their away games
  • Ilves win just 38% against the top half (vs 70% against the bottom)
  • Ilves matches are rarely goalless — only 2.6% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AC Oulu
Balanced
Ilves
Attack-heavy
47%Possession52%
80%Pass accuracy85%
10.3Shots12.1
1.19xGBiggest gap1.82
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AC OuluIlves

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
AC Oulu
1
Draws
8
Ilves
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 30%
0–10–40–00–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oulu
LDLWD
Ilves
WDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AC Oulu host Ilves

August 1, 2026: AC Oulu take on Ilves in Veikkausliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

AC Oulu host Ilves at Raatin stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.