AC Oulu 0–4 Ilves: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Ilves

J. Kilo 86'

J. Veteli 81'

R. Riski 54' (pen)

T. Hytonen 49'

8/16/2025

Veikkausliiga · Round 20Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AC Oulu26%

×Draw22%

Ilves52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.04

AC Oulu

1.40

Ilves

2.04

Ilves creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

1.98

2.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.53

Ilves

1.98

allows per match

AC Oulu

2.10

Ilves

1.27

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

AC Oulu-0.53scores less

Ilves-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

48%

AC Oulu or Ilves

78%

Draw or Ilves

74%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

11%

Ilves wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

75%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

41%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

17%

Ilves 1+ goals

87%

Ilves 2+ goals

60%

Ilves 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

34%

Ilves (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.53 + Ilves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ilves attack 1.98 + AC Oulu defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AC Oulu scores more

26%

level

22%

Ilves scores more

52%

Ilves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Veteli

Ilves · M

8.9

Match Events

13'

Charlemagne Azongnitode

14'

Matias Rale

49'

T. Hytonen↳ R. Riski

54'

R. RiskiPenalty

57'

J. Rennicks← N. Jokelainen

57'

L. Ghezali← S. Harrison

69'

J. Paananen← A. Paananen

69'

F. Krkalic← O. Virtanen

69'

M. Stjopin← J. Kanga

69'

K. Wallius← O. Jukkola

76'

Onni Tiihonen

78'

J. Kilo← R. Riski

80'

J. Lehtonen← S. Silander

80'

M. Ojala← C. Azongnitode

81'

J. Veteli

85'

A. Akinyemi← T. Hytonen

86'

J. Kilo

90+2'

Tatu Miettunen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACIlves

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots15

1.68Expected Goals (xG)2.86

4Corners8

15Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target8

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

269Total Passes550

207Accurate Passes469

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Veikkausliiga: AC Oulu 0–4 Ilves

Ilves beat AC Oulu 4-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 16, 2025.

Goals: T. Hytonen (49'), R. Riski (54' pen), J. Veteli (81'), J. Kilo (86').

Ilves controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.

AC Oulu vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Veikkausliiga: AC Oulu 0–4 Ilves