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AC Milan vs Spezia — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
11/5/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AC Milan56%
×Draw23%
Spezia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.80
Spezia
1.00

AC Milan creates 80% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 57 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

AC Milan
1.01
Spezia
1.96

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
79%
AC Milan or Spezia
77%
Draw or Spezia
44%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
32%
Spezia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
83%
AC Milan 2+ goals
54%
AC Milan 3+ goals
27%
Spezia 1+ goals
63%
Spezia 2+ goals
26%
Spezia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
73%
Spezia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.01 · 132 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.80

Spezia attack 1.00 + AC Milan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AC Milan scores more
56%
level
23%
Spezia scores more
21%

AC Milan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: AC Milan 2–1 Spezia

AC Milan beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie A on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.