AC Milan vs Spal — Serie A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
AC Milan54%
Spal21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AC Milan creates 76% more chances
Season form · 133 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AC Milan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AC Milan at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches
Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AC Milan attack 1.62 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69
Spal attack 0.92 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
AC Milan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Juventus
Napoli
Atalanta
InterAC Milan
AS Roma
Torino
Lazio
Sampdoria
Bologna
Sassuolo
UdineseSpal
Parma
Cagliari
Fiorentina
Genoa
Empoli
Frosinone
ChievoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
AC Milan host Spal on Saturday, 29 December 2018 at 19:30. The match is part of the Serie A 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: AC Milan vs Spal
AC Milan beat Spal 2-1 in Serie A on December 29, 2018.
Goals: A. Petagna (13'), Samu Castillejo (16'), G. Higuaín (64').
AC Milan controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 11.
The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.