AC Milan 1–1 Salernitana: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salernitana

3/13/2023

Serie A · Round 26Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AC Milan57%

×Draw23%

Salernitana20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchSalernitana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.95

AC Milan

1.79

Salernitana

0.95

AC Milan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 38 away

1.62

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

AC Milan

1.62

Salernitana

0.89

allows per match

AC Milan

1.00

Salernitana

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Salernitana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

80%

AC Milan or Salernitana

77%

Draw or Salernitana

43%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

32%

Salernitana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

83%

AC Milan 2+ goals

53%

AC Milan 3+ goals

26%

Salernitana 1+ goals

61%

Salernitana 2+ goals

25%

Salernitana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

74%

Salernitana (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.62 + Salernitana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Salernitana attack 0.89 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AC Milan scores more

57%

level

23%

Salernitana scores more

20%

AC Milan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff