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AC Milan vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Champions League 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
11/2/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group E - 6Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AC Milan44%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.61
Red Bull Salzburg
1.35

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.33
Red Bull Salzburg
1.58

allows per match

AC Milan
1.11
Red Bull Salzburg
1.89

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
68%
AC Milan or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
56%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
22%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
80%
AC Milan 2+ goals
48%
AC Milan 3+ goals
22%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
74%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
39%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
58%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.33 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.58 + AC Milan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Milan scores more
44%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
32%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: AC Milan 4–0 Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-0 in UEFA Champions League on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.