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AC Milan vs Real Betis — UEFA Europa League 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Betis
Real Betis
10/25/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AC Milan45%
×Draw23%
Real Betis32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.78
Real Betis
1.48

AC Milan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

AC Milan
2.22
Real Betis
1.39

allows per match

AC Milan
1.56
Real Betis
1.33

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Real Betis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Real Betis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
68%
AC Milan or Real Betis
77%
Draw or Real Betis
55%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
24%
Real Betis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
83%
AC Milan 2+ goals
53%
AC Milan 3+ goals
26%
Real Betis 1+ goals
77%
Real Betis 2+ goals
43%
Real Betis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
58%
Real Betis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Real Betis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 2.22 + Real Betis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Real Betis attack 1.39 + AC Milan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Milan scores more
45%
level
23%
Real Betis scores more
32%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: AC Milan 1–2 Real Betis

Real Betis beat AC Milan 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 25, 2018.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.