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AC Milan vs Parma — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Parma
Parma
H. Calhanoglu 77'
A. Romagnoli 59'
F. Kessie 55'
J. Kurtic 44'
7/15/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 33Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan53%
×Draw25%
Parma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.62
Parma
0.95

AC Milan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Parma
0.80

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
Parma
1.60

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Parma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
78%
AC Milan or Parma
75%
Draw or Parma
47%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
28%
Parma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
80%
AC Milan 2+ goals
48%
AC Milan 3+ goals
22%
Parma 1+ goals
61%
Parma 2+ goals
25%
Parma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
71%
Parma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Parma attack 0.80 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AC Milan scores more
53%
level
25%
Parma scores more
22%

AC Milan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Hakan ÇalhanoğluAC MilanAC Milan · M
9.2

Match Events

14'
A. Cornelius← Y. Karamoh
33'
A. Grassi
33'
A. Conti
44'
J. Kurtic↳ A. Grassi
46'
A. Conti← D. Calabria
46'
B. Alves← K. Dermaku
55'
F. Kessie↳ H. Calhanoglu
56'
L. Biglia← I. Bennacer
59'
A. Romagnoli↳ H. Calhanoglu
61'
R. Leao← A. Rebic
63'
G. Brugman← R. Inglese
63'
A. Grassi← Hernani
65'
M. Darmian
77'
H. Calhanoglu↳ G. Bonaventura
80'
T. Hernandez← D. Laxalt
80'
H. Calhanoglu← R. Krunic
81'
Y. Karamoh← G. Caprari

Possession

56%AC

Shots

27AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACParma
Overview
56%Possession44%
27Total Shots12
7Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
27Total Shots12
7On Target3
14Off Target2
6Blocked7
14Inside Box7
13Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
526Total Passes409
458Accurate Passes339
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides1

Serie A: AC Milan 3–1 Parma

AC Milan beat Parma 3-1 in Serie A on July 15, 2020.

Goals: J. Kurtic (44'), F. Kessie (55'), A. Romagnoli (59'), H. Calhanoglu (77').

AC Milan controlled possession (56%) and registered 27 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.