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AC Milan vs Lille — UEFA Europa League 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lille
Lille
Y. Yazıcı 58', 55', 22' (pen)
11/5/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group H - 3Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AC Milan45%
×Draw23%
Lille32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.78
Lille
1.45

AC Milan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

AC Milan
2.22
Lille
1.33

allows per match

AC Milan
1.56
Lille
1.33

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Lille+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Lille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
68%
AC Milan or Lille
77%
Draw or Lille
55%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
24%
Lille wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
83%
AC Milan 2+ goals
53%
AC Milan 3+ goals
26%
Lille 1+ goals
77%
Lille 2+ goals
42%
Lille 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
59%
Lille (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Lille away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 2.22 + Lille defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Lille attack 1.33 + AC Milan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Milan scores more
45%
level
23%
Lille scores more
32%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Y. YazıcıLilleLille · F
9.6

Match Events

22'
Y. YazıcıPenalty
36'
Xeka
46'
Rafael Leão← Samu Castillejo
46'
H. Çalhanoğlu← R. Krunić
55'
Y. Yazıcı↳ J. Ikoné
58'
Y. Yazıcı↳ J. David
61'
I. Bennacer← S. Tonali
62'
A. Rebić← Z. Ibrahimović
65'
B. André← Xeka
65'
I. Lihadji← J. Ikoné
74'
Zeki Çelik
78'
J. Hauge← Brahim Díaz
80'
B. Soumaré← Renato Sanches
80'
B. Yılmaz← Y. Yazıcı
83'
Alessio Romagnoli
84'
Reinildo← J. Bamba

Possession

55%AC

Shots

12AC

Pass accuracy

52%AC

Statistics

ACLille
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots14
5Corners7
12Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target6
4Off Target4
4Blocked4
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box8
Passing
55%Possession45%
477Total Passes389
417Accurate Passes310
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Lille

Lille beat AC Milan 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 5, 2020.

Goals: Y. Yazıcı (22' pen, 55', 58').

AC Milan controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.