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AC Milan vs FK Crvena Zvezda — UEFA Europa League 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
F. Kessié 9' (pen)
E. Ben Nabouhane 24'
2/25/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Round of 32Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AC Milan48%
×Draw24%
FK Crvena Zvezda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.72
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.25

AC Milan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

AC Milan
2.22
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.94

allows per match

AC Milan
1.56
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.22

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
72%
AC Milan or FK Crvena Zvezda
76%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
52%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
26%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
82%
AC Milan 2+ goals
51%
AC Milan 3+ goals
25%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
71%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
36%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 2.22 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.72

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 0.94 + AC Milan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Milan scores more
48%
level
24%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
28%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
G. KangaFK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda · M
7.5

Match Events

7'
Rade KrunićGoal cancelled
8'
Marko Gobeljić
9'
F. KessiéPenalty
24'
E. Ben Nabouhane↳ M. Ivanić
45'
Slavoljub Srnić
46'
A. Rebić← R. Krunić
46'
Z. Ibrahimović← Rafael Leão
46'
N. Petrović← S. Srnić
63'
Zlatan Ibrahimović
66'
T. Hernández← D. Calabria
66'
A. Saelemaekers← Samu Castillejo
69'
F. Falco← E. Ben Nabouhane
69'
A. Katai← G. Kanga
70'
Marko Gobeljić
70'
Marko Gobeljić
72'
M. Pavkov← D. Falcinelli
84'
V. Nikolić← M. Ivanić

Possession

51%AC

Shots

16AC

Pass accuracy

50%AC

Statistics

ACFK
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots16
6Corners7
19Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots16
4On Target2
5Off Target10
7Blocked4
9Inside Box10
7Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
395Total Passes361
301Accurate Passes271
76%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls19
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
6Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: AC Milan 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda

AC Milan and FK Crvena Zvezda drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 25, 2021.

Goals: F. Kessié (9' pen), E. Ben Nabouhane (24').

AC Milan controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.