AC Milan 1–3 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fiorentina

Rafael Leão 80'

Franck Ribéry 78'

Gaetano Castrovilli 66'

Erick Pulgar 14' (pen)

9/29/2019

Serie A · Round 6Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

AC Milan47%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.11

AC Milan

1.55

Fiorentina

1.11

AC Milan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.64

creates per match

1.12

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Fiorentina

1.12

allows per match

AC Milan

1.10

Fiorentina

1.47

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

73%

AC Milan or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

53%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

24%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

79%

AC Milan 2+ goals

46%

AC Milan 3+ goals

20%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

67%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

30%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

64%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fiorentina attack 1.12 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AC Milan scores more

47%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

27%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Rafael Leão

AC Milan · F

8.0

Match Events

12'

Ismaël Bennacer

14'

Erick PulgarPenalty

35'

Nikola Milenković

46'

Rade Krunić← Franck Kessié

49'

Germán Pezzella

55'

Mateo Musacchio

58'

Léo Duarte← Krzysztof Piątek

66'

Gaetano Castrovilli

70'

Federico ChiesaMissed penalty

78'

Franck Ribéry↳ Federico Chiesa

79'

Samu Castillejo← Suso

79'

Marco Benassi← Gaetano Castrovilli

80'

Rafael Leão

84'

Kevin-Prince Boateng← Federico Chiesa

86'

Davide Calabria

86'

Pol Lirola

87'

Marco Benassi

89'

Rachid Ghezzal← Franck Ribéry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACFiorentina

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots16

4Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked6

4Inside Box8

7Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

581Total Passes482

507Accurate Passes416

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2