AC Milan 5–2 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.38

AC Milan

2.41

F91 Dudelange

1.38

AC Milan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.22

creates per match

1.20

1.56

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

AC Milan

2.22

F91 Dudelange

1.20

allows per match

AC Milan

1.56

F91 Dudelange

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

79%

AC Milan or F91 Dudelange

81%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

40%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

38%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

91%

AC Milan 2+ goals

69%

AC Milan 3+ goals

43%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

75%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

40%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

74%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 2.22 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.41

F91 Dudelange attack 1.20 + AC Milan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AC Milan scores more

60%

level

19%

F91 Dudelange scores more

21%

AC Milan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Bakayoko

AC Milan · M

8.1

Match Events

19'

Dominik Stolz

21'

P. Cutrone↳ G. Higuaín

39'

D. Stolz

49'

D. Turpel

52'

Suso← A. Halilović

58'

J. Mauri← A. Bertolacci

60'

Cristián Zapata

66'

StélvioOwn goal

70'

H. Çalhanoğlu

72'

David Turpel

75'

M. Pokar← Stélvio

77'

T. SchnellOwn goal

80'

F. Borini← P. Cutrone

80'

80'

87'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACF91

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots9

4Corners6

5Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

9On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked3

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

604Total Passes418

531Accurate Passes352

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1