AC Milan 1–0 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crotone

L. Bonucci 54'

1/6/2018

Serie A · Round 20San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AC Milan63%

×Draw20%

Crotone16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.97

AC Milan

2.11

Crotone

0.97

AC Milan creates 118% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Crotone

0.97

allows per match

AC Milan

0.97

Crotone

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

84%

AC Milan or Crotone

80%

Draw or Crotone

37%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

40%

Crotone wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

88%

AC Milan 2+ goals

62%

AC Milan 3+ goals

35%

Crotone 1+ goals

62%

Crotone 2+ goals

25%

Crotone 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

79%

Crotone (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 138 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.11

Crotone attack 0.97 + AC Milan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AC Milan scores more

63%

level

20%

Crotone scores more

16%

AC Milan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Bonucci

AC Milan · D

8.6

Match Events

20'

Rolando Mandragora

45'

Lucas Biglia

54'

L. Bonucci

64'

G. Crociata← M. Rohdén

76'

N. Kalinić← P. Cutrone

76'

S. Nwankwo← A. Budimir

84'

M. Locatelli← F. Kessié

86'

O. Kragl← A. Barberis

90'

Nikola Kalinić

90'

Bruno Martella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACCrotone

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots8

14Corners0

17Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots8

9On Target2

10Off Target4

7Blocked2

16Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

585Total Passes308

503Accurate Passes207

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1