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AC Milan vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Crotone
Crotone
12/4/2016Serie ASerie A · Round 15San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AC Milan63%
×Draw20%
Crotone16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
2.11
Crotone
0.97

AC Milan creates 118% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 32 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Crotone
0.97

allows per match

AC Milan
0.97
Crotone
2.59

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
84%
AC Milan or Crotone
80%
Draw or Crotone
37%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
40%
Crotone wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
88%
AC Milan 2+ goals
62%
AC Milan 3+ goals
35%
Crotone 1+ goals
62%
Crotone 2+ goals
25%
Crotone 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
79%
Crotone (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 137 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.11

Crotone attack 0.97 + AC Milan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AC Milan scores more
63%
level
20%
Crotone scores more
16%

AC Milan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: AC Milan 2–1 Crotone

AC Milan beat Crotone 2-1 in Serie A on December 4, 2016.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.