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AC Milan vs Como — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Como
Como
T. Reijnders 75'
C. Pulišić 53'
L. da Cunha 33'
3/15/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 29Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

AC Milan41%
×Draw27%
Como32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.33
Como
1.15

AC Milan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
Como
1.15

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
Como
1.00

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
Como+0.41scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
68%
AC Milan or Como
73%
Draw or Como
59%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
19%
Como wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
74%
AC Milan 2+ goals
38%
AC Milan 3+ goals
15%
Como 1+ goals
68%
Como 2+ goals
32%
Como 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
56%
Como (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Como away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Como defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Como attack 1.15 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Milan scores more
41%
level
27%
Como scores more
32%

AC Milan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. ReijndersAC MilanAC Milan · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
Warren Bondo
33'
L. da Cunha↳ N. Paz
46'
Y. Fofana← W. Bondo
46'
Álex Jiménez← T. Hernández
46'
A. Dossena← M. Kempf
48'
Yunus Musah
51'
Lucas Da CunhaGoal cancelled
52'
João Félix← Y. Musah
53'
C. Pulišić↳ T. Reijnders
63'
I. Van der Brempt← A. Dossena
63'
M. Perrone← M. Caqueret
68'
Máximo Perrone
68'
T. Abraham← S. Giménez
72'
T. Douvikas← P. Cutrone
75'
T. Reijnders↳ T. Abraham
78'
R. Loftus-Cheek← Rafael Leão
79'
Álex Jiménez
79'
Gabriel Strefezza
81'
D. Alli← L. da Cunha
90'
Nico Paz
90+1'
Dele Alli
90+1'
Dele AlliCard upgrade

Possession

42%AC

Shots

9AC

Pass accuracy

48%AC

Statistics

ACComo
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots15
0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.99
0Corners5
21Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots15
3On Target6
4Off Target3
2Blocked6
8Inside Box7
1Outside Box8
Passing
42%Possession58%
321Total Passes437
263Accurate Passes385
82%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
-1.21Goals Prevented-1.21
Discipline
21Fouls7
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Serie A: AC Milan 2–1 Como

AC Milan beat Como 2-1 in Serie A on March 15, 2025.

Goals: L. da Cunha (33'), C. Pulišić (53'), T. Reijnders (75').

Como controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.