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AC Milan vs Chievo — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chievo
Chievo
10/7/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 8San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AC Milan62%
×Draw23%
Chievo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.81
Chievo
0.79

AC Milan creates 129% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 19 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.62
Chievo
0.58

allows per match

AC Milan
1.00
Chievo
2.00

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
84%
AC Milan or Chievo
77%
Draw or Chievo
38%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
36%
Chievo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
84%
AC Milan 2+ goals
54%
AC Milan 3+ goals
27%
Chievo 1+ goals
55%
Chievo 2+ goals
19%
Chievo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
79%
Chievo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Chievo away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.62 + Chievo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chievo attack 0.58 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AC Milan scores more
62%
level
23%
Chievo scores more
16%

AC Milan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: AC Milan 3–1 Chievo

AC Milan beat Chievo 3-1 in Serie A on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.