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AC Milan vs Benevento — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Benevento
Benevento
4/21/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 34San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

AC Milan55%
×Draw24%
Benevento21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.73
Benevento
0.98

AC Milan creates 77% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 23 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.62
Benevento
0.96

allows per match

AC Milan
1.00
Benevento
1.83

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
79%
AC Milan or Benevento
76%
Draw or Benevento
45%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
30%
Benevento wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
82%
AC Milan 2+ goals
52%
AC Milan 3+ goals
25%
Benevento 1+ goals
62%
Benevento 2+ goals
26%
Benevento 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
72%
Benevento (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Benevento away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.62 + Benevento defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Benevento attack 0.96 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AC Milan scores more
55%
level
24%
Benevento scores more
21%

AC Milan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Benevento

Benevento beat AC Milan 1-0 in Serie A on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.