AC Milan 1–2 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

AC Milan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Madrid

Rafael Leão 20'

L. Suárez 90+7' (pen)

A. Griezmann 84'

9/28/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

AC Milan43%

×Draw26%

Atletico Madrid31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

AC Milan

1.42

Atletico Madrid

1.15

AC Milan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.18

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

AC Milan

1.18

Atletico Madrid

1.03

allows per match

AC Milan

1.27

Atletico Madrid

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

69%

AC Milan or Atletico Madrid

74%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

57%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

76%

AC Milan 2+ goals

41%

AC Milan 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.18 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atletico Madrid attack 1.03 + AC Milan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AC Milan scores more

43%

level

26%

Atletico Madrid scores more

31%

AC Milan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Griezmann

Atletico Madrid · F

7.5

Match Events

15'

Franck Kessié

20'

Rafael Leão↳ Brahim Díaz

29'

29'

29'

34'

40'

João Félix← K. Trippier

46'

Renan Lodi← Hermoso

46'

R. De Paul← Y. Carrasco

57'

O. Giroud← Rafael Leão

57'

F. Ballo← Brahim Díaz

60'

Geoffrey Kondogbia

61'

A. Griezmann← Koke

64'

T. Lemar← G. Kondogbia

69'

Theo Hernández

79'

Alexis Saelemaekers

81'

A. Florenzi← I. Bennacer

82'

P. Kalulu← A. Saelemaekers

84'

A. Griezmann↳ Renan Lodi

90+6'

Mike Maignan

90+7'

L. SuárezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACAtletico

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots22

2Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots22

3On Target5

3Off Target9

1Blocked8

3Inside Box13

4Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

313Total Passes566

240Accurate Passes492

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

6Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1