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AC Kajaani vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
VPS
VPS
2/15/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 5Kajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AC Kajaani19%
×Draw18%
VPS62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Kajaani
1.38
VPS
2.56

VPS creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

AC Kajaani
1.60
VPS
4.11

allows per match

AC Kajaani
1.00
VPS
1.16

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw
38%
AC Kajaani or VPS
82%
Draw or VPS
81%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+
8%
VPS wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals
75%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
40%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
16%
VPS 1+ goals
92%
VPS 2+ goals
72%
VPS 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
24%
VPS (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

VPS away — creates 4.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.60 + VPS defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

VPS attack 4.11 + AC Kajaani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AC Kajaani scores more
19%
level
18%
VPS scores more
62%

VPS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Kajaani 1 – 3 VPS

VPS beat AC Kajaani 3-1 in Suomen Cup on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Kajaanin Pallohalli in Kajaani.