Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Kajaani vs SJK Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
2/8/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Kajaanin Pallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AC Kajaani32%
×Draw24%
SJK Akatemia44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Kajaani
1.39
SJK Akatemia
1.68

SJK Akatemia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

AC Kajaani
1.60
SJK Akatemia
2.36

allows per match

AC Kajaani
1.00
SJK Akatemia
1.18

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw
56%
AC Kajaani or SJK Akatemia
76%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
68%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+
14%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals
75%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
40%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
16%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
81%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
50%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
42%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.60 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

SJK Akatemia attack 2.36 + AC Kajaani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Kajaani scores more
32%
level
24%
SJK Akatemia scores more
44%

SJK Akatemia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: AC Kajaani 1–0 SJK Akatemia

AC Kajaani beat SJK Akatemia 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Kajaanin Pallohalli in Kajaani.