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AC Kajaani vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
7/7/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AC Kajaani39%
×Draw25%
KPV Kokkola35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Kajaani
1.42
KPV Kokkola
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

creates per match

AC Kajaani
1.38
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

AC Kajaani
1.54
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw
65%
AC Kajaani or KPV Kokkola
75%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
61%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+
18%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals
76%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
41%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
17%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
74%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
39%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
52%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.38 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + AC Kajaani defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AC Kajaani scores more
39%
level
25%
KPV Kokkola scores more
35%

AC Kajaani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AC Kajaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: AC Kajaani 0–1 KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat AC Kajaani 1-0 in Ykkönen on July 7, 2018.

The match was played at Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani).