AC Kajaani 2–3 Kooteepee: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Kajaani

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kooteepee

8/22/2020

Ykkönen · Round 7Kajaanin liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AC Kajaani35%

×Draw24%

Kooteepee41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC KajaaniExpected goals in this matchKooteepee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.61

AC Kajaani

1.49

Kooteepee

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

1.38

creates per match

1.69

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

AC Kajaani

1.38

Kooteepee

1.69

allows per match

AC Kajaani

1.54

Kooteepee

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

Kooteepee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw

59%

AC Kajaani or Kooteepee

76%

Draw or Kooteepee

65%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+

17%

Kooteepee wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals

77%

AC Kajaani 2+ goals

44%

AC Kajaani 3+ goals

19%

Kooteepee 1+ goals

80%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

48%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)

47%

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.38 + Kooteepee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kooteepee attack 1.69 + AC Kajaani defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Kajaani scores more

35%

level

24%

Kooteepee scores more

41%

Kooteepee at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff