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AC Horsens vs Naestved — 1. Division 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
5/10/20241. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 7Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

AC Horsens48%
×Draw24%
Naestved27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.65
Naestved
1.17

AC Horsens creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.52
Naestved
1.05

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.28
Naestved
1.78

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
73%
AC Horsens or Naestved
76%
Draw or Naestved
52%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
26%
Naestved wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
81%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
49%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
23%
Naestved 1+ goals
69%
Naestved 2+ goals
33%
Naestved 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
64%
Naestved (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.52 + Naestved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Naestved attack 1.05 + AC Horsens defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Horsens scores more
48%
level
24%
Naestved scores more
27%

AC Horsens at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Horsens vs Naestved

AC Horsens beat Naestved 1-0 in 1. Division on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.