AC Horsens 0–0 Lyngby: Result & Stats | Superliga

AC Horsens

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lyngby

6/3/2023

Superliga · Relegation Round - 10Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens42%

×Draw25%

Lyngby33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC HorsensExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.32

AC Horsens

1.52

Lyngby

1.32

AC Horsens creates 15% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 80 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

1.70

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

AC Horsens

1.21

Lyngby

0.94

allows per match

AC Horsens

1.70

Lyngby

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw

67%

AC Horsens or Lyngby

75%

Draw or Lyngby

58%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+

21%

Lyngby wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals

78%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

45%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

20%

Lyngby 1+ goals

73%

Lyngby 2+ goals

38%

Lyngby 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

56%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

Lyngby away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.82 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + Lyngby defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lyngby attack 0.94 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AC Horsens scores more

42%

level

25%

Lyngby scores more

33%

AC Horsens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Finnsson

Lyngby · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Lubambo Musonda

49'

Andreas Bjelland

53'

J. Gemmer← J. Drachmann

73'

T. Storm← W. Kumado

73'

M. Kristensen← C. Winther

76'

E. Just← J. Buus

85'

Malte Kiilerich

87'

S. Iyede← M. Kiilerich

88'

Matej Delač

88'

S. Ngabo← T. Chukwuani

88'

B. Hämäläinen← K. Finnsson

90+1'

Sævar Atli Magnússon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACLyngby

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots10

4Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots10

0On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

2Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

324Total Passes350

214Accurate Passes242

66%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1