AC Horsens 2–3 HB Koge: Result & Stats

AC Horsens

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

HB Koge

10/31/2025

1. Division · Round 15Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

AC Horsens45%

×Draw25%

HB Koge30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC HorsensExpected goals in this matchHB Koge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

AC Horsens

1.60

HB Koge

1.25

AC Horsens creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 129 away

1.52

creates per match

1.22

1.28

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

AC Horsens

1.52

HB Koge

1.22

allows per match

AC Horsens

1.28

HB Koge

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par

HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

HB Koge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw

70%

AC Horsens or HB Koge

75%

Draw or HB Koge

55%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+

23%

HB Koge wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals

80%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

47%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

22%

HB Koge 1+ goals

71%

HB Koge 2+ goals

36%

HB Koge 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

60%

HB Koge (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.68 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.52 + HB Koge defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

HB Koge attack 1.22 + AC Horsens defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Horsens scores more

45%

level

25%

HB Koge scores more

30%

AC Horsens at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff