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AC Horsens vs FC Helsingor — 1. Division 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
5/13/20221. Division1. Division · Promotion Round - 7CASA Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

AC Horsens43%
×Draw25%
FC Helsingor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.58
FC Helsingor
1.34

AC Horsens creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.52
FC Helsingor
1.40

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.28
FC Helsingor
1.65

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
68%
AC Horsens or FC Helsingor
75%
Draw or FC Helsingor
57%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
22%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
79%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
47%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
21%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
74%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
39%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
57%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.52 + FC Helsingor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Helsingor attack 1.40 + AC Horsens defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AC Horsens scores more
43%
level
25%
FC Helsingor scores more
32%

AC Horsens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AC Horsens 3–3 FC Helsingor

AC Horsens and FC Helsingor drew 3-3 in 1. Division on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at CASA Arena Horsens in Horsens.