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AC Horsens vs B 93 — 1. Division 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
B 93
B 93
5/18/20241. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 8Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

AC Horsens44%
×Draw24%
B 9333%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.67
B 93
1.41

AC Horsens creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 48 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.52
B 93
1.54

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.28
B 93
1.81

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
67%
AC Horsens or B 93
76%
Draw or B 93
56%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
23%
B 93 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
81%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
50%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
23%
B 93 1+ goals
76%
B 93 2+ goals
41%
B 93 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
57%
B 93 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.52 + B 93 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

B 93 attack 1.54 + AC Horsens defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Horsens scores more
44%
level
24%
B 93 scores more
33%

AC Horsens at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AC Horsens 1–1 B 93

AC Horsens and B 93 drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.