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AC Guaratinguetá U20 vs Guarani U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Pardinho 90+3'
M. Santos 34'
Unknown 42'
6/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AC Guaratinguetá U2016%
×Draw20%
Guarani U2064%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.98
Guarani U20
2.15

Guarani U20 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.14
Guarani U20
1.45

allows per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
2.86
Guarani U20
0.82

finishing

AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Guaratinguetá U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AC Guaratinguetá U20 or draw
36%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 or Guarani U20
80%
Draw or Guarani U20
84%

Winning margin

AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
5%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
62%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
26%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
8%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
88%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
63%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
20%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Guaratinguetá U20 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 1.14 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
16%
level
20%
Guarani U20 scores more
64%

Guarani U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
M. Santos
42'
53'
53'
90+3'
Pardinho
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: AC Guaratinguetá U20 2–1 Guarani U20

AC Guaratinguetá U20 beat Guarani U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Santos (34'), ? (42'), Pardinho (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.