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AC Guaratinguetá U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
Kaua Cunha 82'
Bruninho 22'
Unknown 71', 62', 51'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AC Guaratinguetá U2024%
×Draw21%
Desportivo Brasil U2055%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.38
Desportivo Brasil U20
2.15

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.14
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
2.86
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Guaratinguetá U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

AC Guaratinguetá U20 or draw
45%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
79%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
76%

Winning margin

AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
10%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
75%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
40%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
16%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
88%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
63%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
31%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Guaratinguetá U20 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 1.14 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
24%
level
21%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
55%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Bruninho
51'
62'
71'
74'
82'
Kaua Cunha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Guaratinguetá U20 2 – 3 Desportivo Brasil U20

Desportivo Brasil U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Bruninho (22'), ? (51', 62', 71'), Kaua Cunha (82').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.