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AC Guaratinguetá U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
Marcos Piovezan 48'
V. P. Tolentino 35'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AC Guaratinguetá U2031%
×Draw22%
Bandeirante U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.54
Bandeirante U20
1.93

Bandeirante U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.14
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

AC Guaratinguetá U20
2.86
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Guaratinguetá U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

AC Guaratinguetá U20 or draw
53%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 or Bandeirante U20
78%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
69%

Winning margin

AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
15%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
79%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
45%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
20%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
85%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
57%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
40%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Guaratinguetá U20 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 1.14 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
31%
level
22%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
47%

Bandeirante U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bandeirante U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
V. P. Tolentino
48'
Marcos Piovezan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Guaratinguetá U20 vs Bandeirante U20

Bandeirante U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: V. P. Tolentino (35'), Marcos Piovezan (48').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.