AC Douane 3–0 Trarza AC: Result & Stats

AC Douane

FT

3 – 0

Trarza AC

6/4/2023

Premier League · Round 26Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AC Douane54%

×Draw25%

Trarza AC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC DouaneExpected goals in this matchTrarza AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.90

AC Douane

1.60

Trarza AC

0.90

AC Douane creates 78% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

1.53

creates per match

0.95

0.84

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

AC Douane

1.53

Trarza AC

0.95

allows per match

AC Douane

0.84

Trarza AC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Douane+0.00on par

Trarza AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Douane ↓

Trarza AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AC Douane or draw

79%

AC Douane or Trarza AC

75%

Draw or Trarza AC

46%

Winning margin

AC Douane wins by 2+

29%

Trarza AC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AC Douane 1+ goals

80%

AC Douane 2+ goals

47%

AC Douane 3+ goals

22%

Trarza AC 1+ goals

59%

Trarza AC 2+ goals

23%

Trarza AC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AC Douane (draw refunded)

72%

Trarza AC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Douane at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Trarza AC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Douane attack 1.53 + Trarza AC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Trarza AC attack 0.95 + AC Douane defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AC Douane scores more

54%

level

25%

Trarza AC scores more

21%

AC Douane at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff