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AC Douane vs Nouakchott Academie — Premier League 2020

AC Douane
AC Douane
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
4/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AC Douane39%
×Draw32%
Nouakchott Academie29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Douane
1.04
Nouakchott Academie
0.84

AC Douane creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 13 away

creates per match

AC Douane
1.53
Nouakchott Academie
0.85

allows per match

AC Douane
0.84
Nouakchott Academie
0.54

finishing

AC Douane+0.00on par
Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Douane ↓

Nouakchott Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AC Douane or draw
71%
AC Douane or Nouakchott Academie
68%
Draw or Nouakchott Academie
61%

Winning margin

AC Douane wins by 2+
16%
Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AC Douane 1+ goals
65%
AC Douane 2+ goals
28%
AC Douane 3+ goals
9%
Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
57%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
21%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AC Douane (draw refunded)
58%
Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Douane at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Nouakchott Academie away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Douane attack 1.53 + Nouakchott Academie defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nouakchott Academie attack 0.85 + AC Douane defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AC Douane scores more
39%
level
32%
Nouakchott Academie scores more
29%

AC Douane at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Douane vs Nouakchott Academie

AC Douane and Nouakchott Academie drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 7, 2026.