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AC Douane vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

AC Douane
AC Douane
FT
1 – 1
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
4/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

AC Douane46%
×Draw29%
Garde Nationale25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Douane
1.27
Garde Nationale
0.86

AC Douane creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 64 away

creates per match

AC Douane
1.53
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

AC Douane
0.84
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

AC Douane+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Douane ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AC Douane or draw
75%
AC Douane or Garde Nationale
71%
Draw or Garde Nationale
54%

Winning margin

AC Douane wins by 2+
21%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AC Douane 1+ goals
72%
AC Douane 2+ goals
36%
AC Douane 3+ goals
14%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
58%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
21%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AC Douane (draw refunded)
65%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Douane at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Douane attack 1.53 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + AC Douane defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AC Douane scores more
46%
level
29%
Garde Nationale scores more
25%

AC Douane at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Douane vs Garde Nationale

AC Douane and Garde Nationale drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.