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Abu Salim vs Rafeeq — Premier League 2019

Abu Salim
Abu Salim
FT
3 – 2
Rafeeq
Rafeeq
7/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Abu Salim48%
×Draw28%
Rafeeq24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abu Salim
1.33
Rafeeq
0.85

Abu Salim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 11 away

creates per match

Abu Salim
0.93
Rafeeq
0.55

allows per match

Abu Salim
1.16
Rafeeq
1.73

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par
Rafeeq+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Rafeeq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw
76%
Abu Salim or Rafeeq
72%
Draw or Rafeeq
52%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+
23%
Rafeeq wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals
74%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
38%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
15%
Rafeeq 1+ goals
57%
Rafeeq 2+ goals
21%
Rafeeq 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)
67%
Rafeeq (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Rafeeq away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Rafeeq defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rafeeq attack 0.55 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Abu Salim scores more
48%
level
28%
Rafeeq scores more
24%

Abu Salim at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abu Salim 3–2 Rafeeq

Abu Salim beat Rafeeq 3-2 in Premier League on July 2, 2021.