Abu Salim 2–1 Al-Tirsana: Result & Stats

Abu Salim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Tirsana

2/25/2025

Premier League · West - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Abu Salim35%

×Draw28%

Al-Tirsana37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abu SalimExpected goals in this matchAl-Tirsana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Abu Salim

1.15

Al-Tirsana

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

0.93

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Abu Salim

0.93

Al-Tirsana

1.21

allows per match

Abu Salim

1.16

Al-Tirsana

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Al-Tirsana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Al-Tirsana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw

63%

Abu Salim or Al-Tirsana

72%

Draw or Al-Tirsana

65%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+

14%

Al-Tirsana wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals

68%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

32%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

11%

Al-Tirsana 1+ goals

70%

Al-Tirsana 2+ goals

33%

Al-Tirsana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

49%

Al-Tirsana (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Al-Tirsana away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Al-Tirsana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al-Tirsana attack 1.21 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Abu Salim scores more

35%

level

28%

Al-Tirsana scores more

37%

Al-Tirsana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Tirsana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff