Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Abu Salim vs Al-Magd — Premier League 2019

Abu Salim
Abu Salim
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Al-Magd
Al-Magd
4/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Abu Salim39%
×Draw27%
Al-Magd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abu Salim
1.34
Al-Magd
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 16 away

creates per match

Abu Salim
0.93
Al-Magd
1.31

allows per match

Abu Salim
1.16
Al-Magd
1.75

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par
Al-Magd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Al-Magd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw
66%
Abu Salim or Al-Magd
73%
Draw or Al-Magd
61%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+
18%
Al-Magd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals
74%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
39%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
15%
Al-Magd 1+ goals
71%
Al-Magd 2+ goals
35%
Al-Magd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)
54%
Al-Magd (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Al-Magd away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Al-Magd defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Magd attack 1.31 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Abu Salim scores more
39%
level
27%
Al-Magd scores more
34%

Abu Salim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abu Salim vs Al-Magd

Al-Magd beat Abu Salim 4-2 in Premier League on April 10, 2025.