Abu Salim 1–2 Al Dahra Tripoli FC: Result & Stats

Abu Salim

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

4/18/2026

Premier League · Group A - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Abu Salim37%

×Draw30%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abu SalimExpected goals in this matchAl Dahra Tripoli FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.97

Abu Salim

1.07

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

0.97

Abu Salim creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 9 away

0.93

creates per match

0.78

1.16

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Abu Salim

0.93

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

0.78

allows per match

Abu Salim

1.16

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Al Dahra Tripoli FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw

68%

Abu Salim or Al Dahra Tripoli FC

70%

Draw or Al Dahra Tripoli FC

63%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+

15%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals

66%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

29%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

9%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals

62%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals

25%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

54%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 0.78 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Abu Salim scores more

37%

level

30%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more

32%

Abu Salim at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff